John Jay warns that if the states split into separate confederacies, they will become rivals — and rivals become enemies.
In Federalist No. 5, John Jay concludes his argument for national unity by confronting a stark possibility: what if the states divide themselves into two or three separate unions? Jay argues that such confederacies would not remain peaceful neighbors. Instead, history shows that regions with unequal advantages — in population, geography, or resources — eventually drift toward jealousy, rivalry, and conflict.
Jay cautions that even if the new confederacies began as friendly partners, they would inevitably turn into competitors. Differences in power, trade, alliances, or leadership would spark distrust. And once distrust takes hold, peace rarely survives.
His message is blunt:
A divided America would become a dangerous America.
Unity is not simply a choice — it is the only safeguard against the slow, predictable slide toward hostility.
Key Arguments of Federalist No. 5
1. Confederacies Would Compete for Power
Jay argues that separate unions would rarely remain equal in strength.
One would grow stronger due to:
• better ports
• greater population
• stronger alliances
• more favorable climate or resources
That imbalance would breed suspicion and resentment.
2. Regional Rivalry Leads to Conflict
Jay draws from European history to illustrate that:
• neighboring nations rarely remain neutral
• differences in power create temptations
• competition for influence turns into conflict
He warns that the same dynamics would appear in North America.
3. Shared Leadership Does Not Guarantee Shared Peace
Jay notes that even monarchies governed by siblings — those closest in blood — have become enemies when their interests diverged.
If family ties cannot secure peace, regional alliances certainly cannot.
4. Disunity Encourages Foreign Manipulation
Jay warns that foreign powers would exploit regional divisions.
They could:
• form alliances with one confederacy against another
• create economic dependencies
• influence regional politics
This would undermine America’s independence and security.
5. A Single Union Is the Only Reliable Path to Peace
Jay concludes that only a unified federal government can:
• speak with one diplomatic voice
• negotiate from strength
• prevent internal competition
• maintain stability across the continent
The Constitution, therefore, is not merely a framework — it is a peacekeeping mechanism.
Modern Relevance
Jay’s warnings mirror the challenges of the 21st century. Fragmentation — political, regional, informational — weakens cooperation and inflames division. When states or regions drift into separate political realities, they risk becoming adversaries rather than allies.
The core truth remains:
A fractured nation cannot solve shared problems.
Whether addressing climate change, public health, infrastructure, justice, or civil rights, unity enables coordinated action, while fragmentation invites instability.
Jay’s message still matters: the health of a republic depends on its ability to remain whole.
Herald Ethical Insight
Ethical movements rely on collective strength.
A divided society cannot protect the vulnerable — human or nonhuman — because competing factions prioritize dominance over justice.
Jay’s argument reinforces a core Humane Herald principle:
Cooperation is a moral asset.
When regions or groups turn against each other, compassion becomes fragmented, rights become inconsistent, and progress slows.
Unity is not conformity; it is a shared commitment to the wellbeing of all.
Lesson in Liberty
A nation divided into competing confederacies will not stay peaceful — unity is the shield that protects liberty.
The Humane Herald 